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Мир становится менее религиозным, считают социологи

Исследовательский холдинг "Ромир" провел в январе 2012 на территории России опрос о религиозной самоидентификации, на основании результатов которого были построены индексы религиозности и атеизма. Исследование проводилось в рамках ежегодного глобального международного опроса Ассоциации Gallup International/WIN "Глобальный Барометр Надежды и Отчаяния" (Global Barometer on Hope and Despair). Одновременно опрос был проведен в 59 странах мира, охватив большую часть населения земного шара (порядка 70%). В каждой стране респондентов опрашивали по национальной вероятностной выборке с помощью личных, телефонных или онлайн интервью.

Итоги всемирного опроса показали, что более половины жителей нашей планеты (59%) считают себя религиозными людьми. Каждый пятый житель Земли (23%) назвал себя нерелигиозным человеком. И только каждый восьмой опрошенный (13%) заявил, что является убежденным атеистом. Причем наивысшая концентрация атеистов наблюдается в Восточной Азии - среди китайцев (47%) и японцев (31%).

В России показатели религиозности оказались следующими: 55% религиозных, 26% нерелигиозных, 6% атеистов и 13% затруднившихся с ответом. Доля россиян, называющих себя религиозными, за последние семь лет, с момента последнего аналогичного опроса, практически не изменилась. В 2005 году религиозными себя считали 57% россиян, а атеистами называли себя 4% населения. Таким образом за семь лет с момента проведения предыдущего аналогичного опроса индекс религиозности россиян понизился на 2%, а индекс атеизма вырос на те же 2%.

В рамках всемирного опроса, проведенного ассоциацией Gallup InternationalWIN, 50 тысячам респондентов из 57 стран мира был задан одинаковый вопрос: "Вне зависимости от того, посещаете ли Вы места общественного богослужения или нет, Вы считаете себя религиозным человеком, нерелигиозным человеком или убежденным атеистом?"

Полученные результаты распределились следующим образом. В целом религиозными себя называют более половины землян (59%), а атеистами - лишь один из восьми (13%). И каждый пятый (23%) - "нерелигиозен", т.е. верит в Бога или какие-то высшие силы, но не идентифицирует себя с какой-то конкретной церковью и не соблюдает обряды.

Вопреки расхожему мнению, различия по полу и возрасту в вопросе о религиозности оказались весьма незначительны - в пределах допустимой статистической погрешности. А вот к числу действительно влияющих факторов относятся образование и доход. Так, среди граждан, не имеющих полного среднего образования, религиозными себя назвали 67%, а среди тех, у кого высшее образование – только половина (52%). Двое из трех землян с низким уровнем дохода считают себя религиозными и лишь половина - среди тех, у кого доходы высокие и выше среднего.

Соответственно и страны по уровню религиозности поделились на "богатых" и "бедных".

Только Бразилия, Македония и Армения не относятся к группе беднейших стран мира. Небогатая Армения является первой страной в мире, где христианство в начале IV века н.э. было принято в качестве официальной государственной религии. А Бразилия покинула лагерь бедных стран менее 15 лет назад. Во второй десятке "самых религиозных" стран мира - Грузия, Пакистан, Афганистан, Молдавия, Колумбия, Камерун, Малайзия, Индия, Польша, Южный Судан. Из них только Польша и Колумбия являются странами со средним уровнем экономического развития.

А вот в числе стран с самой большой долей атеистов оказались в основном экономически процветающие страны, как, например, Япония, Чехия, Франция, Германия, Нидерланды, Австрия, Австралия. Только Китай, где доля атеистов составляет почти половину (47%) населения, не относится к группе самых богатых стран мира. (Но, говоря о Китае, не стоит забывать, что религиозность там не приветствуется, и коммунистическая идеология всеми силами пытается ее собой подменить.) Еще семь стран - Канада, Испания, Швейцария, Гонконг, Швеция, Бельгия - имеют долю атеистов в 1,5 раза выше среднемировой. Все они относятся к "клубу" самых богатых стран мира.

Исследование выявило интересные различия между представителями разных конфессий. По сравнению с мусульманами и иудеями среди христиан число людей, относящих себя к "религиозным", выше. Интересно, что среди наиболее религиозных стран оказалось много православных - Сербия, Македония, Грузия, Румыния и Молдавия. Самый же высокий процент "религиозных" был выявлен среди индуистов.

Зато в целом по миру наблюдается тенденция значительного снижения доли религиозного населения.

В среднем за последние семь лет число называющих себя религиозными людьми сократилось на девять процентных пунктов. А в некоторых странах это снижение составило порядка 20 процентных пунктов, как, например, во Франции, Швейцарии, ЮАР. Значимый рост (на 4-6 процентных пунктов) доли религиозных граждан произошел за последние семь лет только в Македонии, Сербии, Румынии, Молдавии, Пакистане и Малайзии. Но индекс религиозности в этих странах и в 2005 году был выше 70-75%.

Президент холдинга "Ромир", директор-координатор Gallup International/WIN по России, СНГ и Восточной Европе Андрей Милехин, комментируя результаты глобального Индекса религиозности, отметил: "График соотношения богатства страны и уровня ее духовности оказался вполне закономерным, хотя и не обошелся без исключений. Как мы видим, в лагере наиболее религиозных оказались в основном самые бедные страны. Вера, видимо, помогает переносить тяготы и невзгоды повседневной жизни. Зато большинство стран с высоким уровнем экономического развития не смогли перешагнуть серединную отметку шкалы религиозности. Исключение здесь составили Италия и США, где вопросы веры возведены практически в государственную традицию. Любопытно понаблюдать, как расположились в общемировом рейтинге страны БРИК - они образовали некий коридор, на "религиозном" конце которого расположились индусы и бразильцы, а на "атеистическом" - китайцы. И Россия где-то посередине - в меру богатая и в меру верующая. По общим ощущениям, индекс уровня религиозности во многом совпадает с индексами оптимизма и личного счастья, которые традиционно измеряет Gallup International: чем богаче страна, тем менее счастливыми и оптимистично настроенными ощущают себя ее граждане. Грустная тенденция".

Результаты измерения индекса религиозности, представленные Gallup InternationalWIN, прокомментировала руководитель отдела социологии религии ИСПИ РАН доктор социологических наук Юлия Синелина:

"Вывод о том, что "бедные" страны более религиозны, чем "богатые", конечно, имеет основания, весьма популярен и уже неоднократно был озвучен. Особенно этот тезис работает в самых "бедных" странах. Но, что касается европейских стран, все же стоит учитывать культурные и исторические особенности. Например, в протестантских странах уже несколько десятилетий доля нерелигиозных людей существенно выше, чем в католических. Исключение из этого правила - Франция - имеет свою историческую специфику. В тренде снижающейся религиозности в протестантских странах, вероятно, стоит рассматривать и снижение доли религиозных людей в США и Швейцарии.

Сам по себе факт снижения религиозности в США, по ее мнению, очень интересен, поскольку долгое время США были главным исключением из вышеуказанного правила "чем беднее, тем религиознее", - что служило одним из доводов против всей теории секуляризации. Европейские и американские социологи на протяжении последних 20 лет прогнозировали, что вслед за секуляризацией северных протестантских стран последует секуляризация Средней Европы, а затем и Южной. Возможно, данные о снижении религиозности в Германии, Швейцарии и Австрии свидетельствует об этом процессе.

Важное значение для уровня религиозности имеет и ситуация, когда религия является определяющим фактором самоидентификации в условиях сложной политической и межконфессиональной ситуации либо на границах страны, либо внутри нее, как это происходит в Сербии, Македонии, Ираке и Пакистане. Иначе говоря, ситуация потенциальных или реальных межрелигиозных конфликтов, существование на линии религиозного фронтира с некой "враждебной" культурой, как правило, влияет на повышение уровня религиозности. В таких условиях долгое время существовала и Польша, и до сих пор она одна из самых религиозных стран Европы".

Gallup International/WIN - крупнейшая и самая известная ассоциация независимых исследовательских агентств, объединяющая 72 компании и проводящая независимые опросы в почти 100 странах мира. В разные периоды Gallup International/WIN проводил соцопросы и эксит-поллы на президентских и парламентских выборах во многих странах мира. В течение многих лет Gallup International/WIN проводит опросы в рамках международных проектов "Глас народа", "Барометр надежд и отчаяния" и др.